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Daily Derivative Report -BY YAGNESH PATEL
Derivative data | Market forecast for next day | Highest OI in stocks |Pivot levels for 5 stocks for next day
Global Events
World Markets.....
US Market Positive
Dow Jones UP 172 (+0.37%)
NASDAQ UP 160 (+0.72%), S&P UP 32 (+0.49%)
European Market Negative
FTSE down 11 (-0.12%), CAC down 1 (-0.01%),
DAX down 35 (-0.15%)
Asian Markets Mix
Nikkei UP 688 (+1.53%), Hang S. down 232 (-0.88%),
Taiwan UP 245 (+0.96%), Kospi UP 25 (+0.73%)
Shanghai UP 3 (+0.08%), St.T UP 2 Points (+0.06%)
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GIFT Nifty down 74 Points (25,336)
DOW Future down 86 Points
NASDAQ Futures down 20 Points
Brent Crude UP 0.53% and near at 67.03/bbl
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Dollar Index & US Bond Yield
slightly up 97.34 & 4.14 respectively
Trump targets new H1B Visa
Impose additional FACTS of $ 1,00,000
India US Trade deal soon
US Jobless Claims dip and Philly Fed survey
beats forecast, reinforcing
Dollar strength in post - FOMC trading
ECB officials strike a neutral tone saying
rates are appropriate, with balanced inflation
risks but weaker growth outlook.
Mary Daly noted the Fed's move to cut rates
was to try and bolster a weakening labor market,
noting a pointed softening of the
US economy over the past year.
Minneapolis Minnesota Fed President
Neel Kashkari said that he supported the
rate cut this week as risks of and increase in
unemployment warranted some action.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran said that
the economy should have an interest rate
not too far from the neutral rate.
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All Eyes On....
USD :FOMC Member Williams, Musalem, Miran,
Barkin and Hammack speaks
GBP : BOE Gov Bailey speaks
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Domestic Events
Stronger dollar and Trump-linked risk aversion may pressure INR
The US economic docket featured comments by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Governor Miran. Daly’s message was mildly dovish, while Kashkari sounded neutral, even opening the door for hikes if needed. Conversely, Governor Miran confirmed that the “dot plot” on the lowest range for the fed funds rate was him, saying that he does not think that a 50 bps cut “would worry markets.” According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are assigning a 91% probability of a 25 bps cut in October and nearly an 80% chance of another move in December. This aligns with the Fed’s updated dot plot, which signaled around 50 bps of additional easing in the remainder of the year, though Chair Powell stressed monetary policy would remain data-dependent.
The European Central Bank (ECB) had little to offer these last few days, after announcing its decision to keep interest rates unchanged on September 11. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos noted the central bank needs to follow a “very prudent” approach to monetary policy amid still high uncertainty, but added there was “very positive” news on inflation. Finally, he noted that the present policy stance is appropriate. In France, protests are exerting downward pressure on the EURUSD as hundreds of thousands of people met in France’s main cities to pressure President Emmanuel Macron and newly appointed PM Sebastien Lecomu to scrap plans to cut spending proposed by the previous PM, François Bayrou.
On the downside, the US Dollar Index is testing its immediate support at the psychological level of 97.00, followed by 96.22, the lowest since February 2022, reached on September 17. Further declines would prompt the dollar index to test the lower boundary of the descending channel around 95.10. While on the other side, the dollar index to trying approach the 50-day EMA at 98.03, which if taken out may create sharp bullishness for the dollar.
Trump declared that H-1B visa petitions would have to be accompanied by a payment of $100,000. This may have huge impact on Indian IT companies, and outflows from Indian equities market can be seen. Going forward, the next major trigger for the Indian Rupee will be the imposition of new Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates from September 22. For USDINR, the August 28 low of 87.66 will act as key support while on the upside, 88.46 (all time high would be the key hurdle for the pair), followed by 88.80 levels. Feeds from India-US tariff front would be important to watch.
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The $1,00,000 fine for H-1B visas
might significantly impact the technology sector,
which usually employs skilled workers from
countries like India and China
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Dollar Index down 0.01% at 97.40
Rupees down 31 Paisa to close at 88.13 against US$
Sector Watch
Shipping, Auto, Pharma, Consumer Durable,
AC Stocks, White Goods, Realty, PSU Banking
Sector Avoid
IT, Metal, FMCG, Capital Goods, NBFC, Private Banking
Indian Markets Trend
With gap down start
Sharp fall may seen in near term
Nifty-50 likely to break 25300 & Sensex 82400 level
Overall US H1B Visa Which could dampen
sentiment across the IT spaces &
Knee - Jerk reaction may seen during the session
New GST Slabs Kick in today
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Primary Markets
Euro Pratik Main board IPO Subscribed 1.41x on final day
VMS TMT Main Board IPO Subscribed 102.24x on final day
iValue Infolsolutions Main Board IPO Subscribed 0.89 on Day 2
GK Energy IPO Subscribed 2.69x on Day 1
Saatvik Green Energy IPO Subscribed 0.62x on Day 1
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Listing Today
(1) TechD Cybersecurity Ltd. NSE Emerge IPO
Listing on 23rd September, 2025
(1) Euro Pratik Sales Main Board IPO
Listing on 24th September, 2025
(1) VMS TMT Main Board IPO
(2) Sampat Aluminium BSE SME IPO
Listing on 25th September, 2025
(1) iValue Infosolutions Main Board IPO
(2) JD Cables BSE SME IPO
Listing on 26th September, 2025
(1) GK Energy Main Board IPO
(2) Saatvik Green Energy Main Board IPO
(3) Siddhi Cotspin NSE Emerge IPO
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