Market movement updates
Nifty broke its monthly resistance range and, given that it closed above the important level of 24,230, it’s a strong sign of a bull run ahead. One more positive sign is nifty given closing above Jan month high, and we already told earlier if Nifty broke and sustained above Jan month high, then whole year we can see most of the bull market move. On the other side, the Pahalgam terror attack news is still there, and any military action can create panic and fall in the market, so we have to remain liberal on the downside too.
On the technical side, RSI is now trading above the resistance level of 60, so we can see consolidation or bullish moves in the market in the coming days. Also, the monthly closing is now above the 20 SMA as well as the January month high. The monthly super trend is still positive. The market mood indicator gives a natural look
The retracement move can lead to one more entry for bulls near by 23,800 zone. The overall view is looking stronger positive for the month, and bulls will do some surprising moves.
On the monthly time frame, the Nifty faced resistance at 25,350. This month's Nifty range is 23,550 to 25,350, which is 1,800 points.
Nifty closed above 25,000 for the first time on the weekly chart after September 2024. Bulls completely absorbed the bearish candlestick pattern of last week and created a super bullish Marubozu candle with such impressive volumes that the market seems to be changing its trend quickly. Once, the India-Pakistan situation looked extremely bad, but after the news of ceasefire, short sellers got trapped, and the market reacted strongly to the decision, making it seem like nothing happened between the two countries.
On the technical side, Nifty claimed the RSI resistance area of 60 and settled above it, so we are back with a strong outlook. The weekly super trend is positive, and the volumes also look impressive. Nifty is protected by 20 SMA and is also trading above the same. Based on the weekly closing, the technical indicators are showing positive moves for the
next week. Last week's key resistance level of 24,600 is now acting as a support level for the Sbulls next week.
This week's range is from 24,400 to 25,450 with a total range of 1050 points. A breakout or breakdown could add an additional 350 points.
The daily chart of Nifty looks extremely bullish with a few hidden chart patterns and other indicators sign. The conflict between the two neighboring countries is not over yet, this is just a pause with some smoke. Any minor negative action can collapse the whole move captured by the bulls. The ongoing geopolitical action by both countries is suggested to remain cautious for this month.
On the technical side, the RSI is now above 60, so it indicates the bulls are back in the market. The super trend indicates buying on a daily time frame, but another side observed the hanging man pattern on the daily time frame. The 20 SMA level is still protected, also the breakout and retesting move has also been done. The inverted HNS pattern target is coming around 25,640, so another 2.50% move can be seen in Nifty on the upside. But we always said to be more cautious when everything looks fine or positive. The previous gap is still pending on the chart.
The daily range for this week is 24,800 to 25,200, with a total range of 400 points. Any sideways breakout or downturn will add an additional 200 points.Back-to-back bullish candles and a positive closing done by Bank Nifty on the monthly time frame are also the same as Nifty here. Bank Nifty is given closing above Jan month closing, so bulls are ready to take charge here for the next stop of 57,753.35 from the current level. Keep note of one thing that Bank Nifty is super strong compared to
Nifty, and potentially it will easily give a minimum 6% move. However, past data shows a mixed move for the May month progress compared to the Nifty return.
On a technical look last month, we gave you a hint about V-shape recovery in RSI and gave a green flag in Bank Nifty for a massive 3k plus point move, and the result is everybody knows. The RSI is now again above 60 and trying to cool down before an upside move. The monthly super trend is currently showing a buy signal. The volume is looking attractive and looks bigger compared to previous months. Also, the monthly closing of Bank Nifty has covered the previous 10 months of closing, which means bulls are ready to roar. The private and PSU banking charts also heat up, showing a positive move. The monthly closing is above the 20 SMA.
The overall range of the Bank Nifty is 4,250 points for this month. The upper side resistance at 57,750 and the lower side support at 53,500 are further trend-decider levels.
Bank Nifty is now moving on the monthly target of 57,750, but it is still locked in the inside bar candlestick pattern, and the previous high will act as a resistance for the bulls in the coming season. The current range zone is still locked with a 55,500 to 53,500 level, which has a 2000-point range, and if this range is broken, we can see a minimum 600 to 1000 point movement. The previous week’s inside bar candlestick pattern is still active, and we are waiting for more confirmation.
On the technical side, the weekly RSI of Bank Nifty took support at the level of 60 and bounced back. The volume looks attractive compared to the previous week's selling volume. The option data is showing a bullish move ahead, and the weekly super trend is also positive, so it’s a strong buying signal. The MMI is moved quickly into the greed zone after the announcement of a ceasefire between both countries. For the next week, we have closely observed the level of 56,200 based on closing. Once we close above this level, we will initiate a long position for the 57,750 level.
The overall range of the Bank Nifty is 2,150 points for this week. The upper side resistance at 56,350 and the lower side support at 54,200 are further trend-decider levels.
The closing of Bank Nifty is now at the neck of the flag and pole pattern. Once the neckline is broken and closing above this line, we will see more bullish moves in the chart. As of now, there is no negative news in the market, and when everything is fine in the market, it is time to be cautious till the time we are flowing with the flow and wait for a breakout move.
On the technical side, the RSI is now above the level of 60 but is seen as flat. No strength seen in the daily volume, and it looks like going to dry soon. The daily super trend is positive and indicates a positive move ahead. Other hand, Nifty private bank and PSU bank charts are showing opposite moves, so we can consider a sideways to profit booking move in Bank Nifty for the next week. The 20 SMA level is still protected, and below this level, we are going to initiate a fresh selling position.
The overall range of the Bank Nifty for intraday play is 1400 points. The upper side resistance at 56,000 and the lower side support at 54,600 are the further trend-deciding levels.
Sector to watch: NIFTY INFRA (Follow previously given stocks)
Adani Ports, suggesting an entry above ₹1,425 with upside targets of ₹1,485, ₹1,540, and ₹1,600, and a stop-loss at ₹1,385 on a closing basis. The stock is currently trading around ₹1,245 and is in an uptrend, moving above its 20-day simple moving average (~₹1,302), with rising volume and an RSI near 55 indicating bullish momentum. A breakout above the ₹1,425 resistance level could signal further upward movement, making this a momentum-based trading opportunity.
Indigo (InterGlobe Aviation Ltd - NSE), recommending an entry above ₹5,562 with targets at ₹5,740 and ₹5,900, and a stop-loss at ₹5,480 on a closing basis. The stock is currently consolidating near its recent highs, trading just below the breakout level, with strong upward momentum and support from the 20-day simple moving average (~₹5,123). A breakout above ₹5,562 could signal a continuation of the uptrend, making it a favorable opportunity for swing traders.
Shree Cement (NSE) with a current market price (CMP) entry at ₹31,615, targeting ₹32,050 and ₹32,650, and a stop-loss set at ₹31,150. The stock is showing strength on the weekly chart, trading above its 20-week simple moving average (~₹25,610) with increasing volume, indicating accumulation. The RSI is around 68, suggesting strong bullish momentum, and the price is approaching previous resistance levels, making it a candidate for a breakout if it sustains above the current level.
Reliance Industries (NSE) suggests a bullish setup with an entry above ₹1,465 and targets at ₹1,490, ₹1,540, and ₹1,580, with a stop-loss at ₹1,425. The stock is in a strong uptrend, trading well above its 20-day simple moving average (~₹1,379), supported by rising volumes and RSI around 70, indicating bullish momentum. A breakout above the ₹1,465 resistance could lead to further gains, making this an attractive opportunity for short-term traders.
Analysis by Market Movers
NISM certified -202200102336
(Disclosures: At the time of writing this article, author, his clients & dependent family members may have positions in the stocks mentioned above. The author, his firm, his clients or any of his dependent family members may make purchases or sale of the securities mentioned in website. Author may have positions in above stocks so have vested interest obviously in their going up or down as the case may be.
Disclaimer: Investing in any equity is risky. Our recommendations are based on reliable & authenticated sources believed to be true & correct, and also is technical analysis based on & conceived from charts. Investors should take their own decisions. We assume no responsibility for any transactions undertaken by them. The author won't be liable or responsible for any legal or financial losses made by anybody. Investors must take advice from their financial advisors before investing in any stocks.)